Zane's 2009 Oscar predictions

Zane’s 2009 Oscar predictions

Since The Dark Knight didn’t get a Best Picture nomination, expect it to win many of the technical awards like best sound and best sound editing. It might even pick up a few awards for best visual effects and make-up.
As for Heath Ledger, expect a very mushy scene. I’m almost sure, Ledger’s little girl is going to be on stage accepting the award as people around the world cry. I mean, let’s face it, the Best Supporting Actor category is a sympathy vote category often reserved for veterans actors. There’s no more sympathy than giving an award to a man who died when he was 28. But I wonder if Ledger would have even been nominated if he was still alive today.
Phillip Seymour Hoffman won a few years ago for Capote in one of his few roles where he doesn’t belch his lines. Michael Shannon is the obligatory, “We feel you did a good job, but not a cold chance in hell” vote. Both Josh Brolin and Robert Downey Jr., two former teen actors and children of famous actors, are more deserving for Milk and Tropic Thunder. But does the Academy really want to reward an actor for portraying the man who came up with the “Twinkie defense” or an actor making fun of method actors and playing it in blackface, nonetheless.
The Best Supporting Actress category is a tricky one. It’s either veteran actresses or up and coming actresses who never get another shot at this time of glory ever again. Viola Davis is a favorite for Doubt, but but Taraji P. Henson might get it for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. Marisa Tomei already won, so this is one less award for The Wrestler. Besides people are still mad that she rightfully won for My Cousin Vinny against the Woody Allen penned role for Judy Davis. Amy Adams is a great actress, but this is her second nomination in a few years. She’s got more to come before a win. Some people are still not over being freaked out by her musical performance at last year’s Oscar show. Penelope Cruz might upset the vote. Typically, actors of Woody Allen’s films get wins, but since the movie didn’t get any other nominations not even for writing, it’s a stretch.
As for Best Actress, it is none other than Kate Winslet. Why? Because she’s reached that milestone in which an actor goes from being nominated a few times to being nominated several times. No one wants her to go home empty handed. Also, Winslet is probably the only actress under 40 who doesn’t feel she has to look all anorexic. Meryl Streep is good, but she’s always good and won twice already, even though it’s been like 25 years since her last win. Streep will get her third Oscar, just not this year. Don’t expect another upset like last year with the award going to Melissa Leo from Frozen River. No one saw this movie. The nomination is recognition alone. Angelina Jolie might have been good in Changeling, but she won 10 years ago. Also, she’s up against Kate Winslet. Anne Hathaway is still young and will win one day, just not this year.
As for Best Actor, I hate to say it because we’re all going to have to say it without laughing or cringing, Academy Award winner Mickey Rourke. I know, it sends chills down my back. This might not have been too much of an exaggeration back in the mid-80's when Rourke was an up and coming actor appearing in critically acclaimed movies, but he has more or less screwed up his career for 20 years now. He really doesn’t deserve it. Quite frankly, this movie didn’t revitalize his career. Robert Rodriguez casting him in Once Upon a Time in Mexico and Sin City did. Frank Langella deserves it more for his portrayal of Nixon, but that film is too political. Milk is political but Sean Penn plays a gay guy which next to playing psychos and mentally challenged people is almost surely a nomination. But Penn may have shot himself in the foot when he made that comment at the SAG Awards about this is between just him and Rourke. No, it’s not. Brad Pitt’s a pretty boy and has reached Cary Grant status. Pitt has proven himself a good actor but it’s going to take him about 20 more years before he wins this award. Richard Jenkins is another deserving veteran actor, but the nomination alone is recognition for the little seen The Visitor, but don’t be surprised if this is the upset of the night.
Best Director will go to Danny Boyle. This is the first time in a long time that all nominated directors have had their movies nominated. Stephen Daldry will one day win, when he does a more high profile movie. David Fincher has proven that he can make “happy” movies. Gus Van Sant may one day win, when he can make more mainstream movies like Good Will Hunting. Ron Howard’s already won and Frost/Nixon is too political. There’s still some resentment for The Da Vinci Code. Slumdog Millionaire is Boyle’s baby. A nice good job for an independent director.
But don’t expect Slumdog Millionaire to get the Best Picture win. And here’s why? Best Picture is a thumbs up to the producers. It’s also a British movie. Also, not one single actor from the movie was nominated. How can a movie be so good that not one actor could be recognized out of four categories. This has happened before with Braveheart and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, but those movies were epics and the Academy loves epics.
Good reviews mean absolute dick when it comes to picking the Best Picture. Forrest Gump was despised by some of the top critics in the country. It wins.
Another con is that Slumdog Millionaire has already won a lot of awards already. This is the Golden Globes still trying to live down that Pia Zadora vote or the SAG awards which are just silly. Yes, it won the Producers Guild award but that was expected same as the BAFTA Awards.
Call this the Brokeback Mountain syndrome. Whenever a movie gets a lot of pre-Oscar awards and critical praise, expect the unexpected. Yes, a movie might have won that award, but this is the freaking Oscars.
Finally, Academy voters might see through the fact that Slumdog Millionaire is nothing more than liberal guilt. It’s set in Mumba, which people couldn’t locate on a map until a few months ago. But what really hurts this movie is a debate if it has one or two directors and how the child actors may have been exploited.
So, who’s going to win? Expect the Curious Case of Benjamin Button to win. It will take the other awards like best make-up and art direction and cinematograhy and such. It’s also a period piece movie, which the Academy just drools over. There’s a Forrest Gump/Shakespeare in Love/Chicago quality to the movie, in other words, Pulp Fiction, The Shawshank Redemption, Saving Private Ryan and The Pianist may have been better made movies, but we really can’t throw our balls on the line. The Academy is probably saying, “C’mon, we voted for The Departed and No Country for Old Men when we really wanted to dote on Little Miss Sunshine and Juno. You owe us for this one.”
Frost/Nixon and Milk are too political and these movies never win, unless they are documentaries. Milk also got mixed reviews, just as Button, but Button didn’t get snubbed at the Golden Globes. The Reader is another movie that’s too political. It’s a period piece movie, sure, but Kate Winslet win will be enough to appease the movie’s makers.
Slumdog Millionaire might pick up a Best Screenplay win and it might beat out Wall-E for Best Song, but you won’t expect much gold from the Academy. Slumdog Millionaire is nominated for 10 awards. Don’t expect it to get more than half. Button has more nominations and ergo, it will get more wins. It just makes sense.
(I know, I’m probably pissed off the Slumdog Millionaire/Danny Boyle cult out there
who spend countless hours on the Internet looking for any negativity, but I just feel too much is being made about this movie.)